Just as an addition to the ruling (I read the ruling in its entirety), Judge Walker ruled that LGBT persons are entitled to strict scrutiny although the case filed by the defendant-intervenors failed even the rational basis test (A lower standard of scrutiny). It is a tightly crafted, meticulously detailed ruling, his findings of fact are detailed, the legal analysis is incisive. It looks like this judge has no desire to be overturned and he and his clerks put in a lot of time on crafting this decision.
It is highly unlikely that the 9th Circuit will overrule him, which leads the case precisely where everyone expects it to go...the Supreme Court. The issue is this, will Kagan be confirmed? If so, as usual Justice Anthony Kennedy will be the swing vote. With Kagan likely voting with Ginsburg, Sotomayor, and Breyer. As a Court watcher, I do not expect any defections from the conservative wing although Lawrence and Garner v. Texas was a 6-3 ruling (AJ Kennedy delivered the majority opinion and AJ O'Connor filed a seperate concurring opinion on 14th Amendment/Due Process grounds), AJ Scalia delivered the dissent.
Chances of success at the SCOTUS level? Hard to figure although my initial impression/WAG is that it will be a 5-4 ruling upholding Judge Walker's original ruling, there are too many well detailed findings of law and fact to disturb the. Now excuse me while I cross fingers and toes simulatneously.
WoooooTT!!!
~Lore